As the race for the Edo governorship heats up, several factors are shaping up that could determine the outcome. From political alliances to grassroots movements, here are critical spearheads to watch closely as the election approaches.
All is set for tomorrow’s governorship election in Edo State, following the end of political campaigns as outlined by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). In preparation for the polls, the Edo State Government has declared today, Friday, September 20, a work-free day. This decision allows workers and voters the opportunity to travel to their respective polling locations.
The announcement is a clear indication of the importance placed on the upcoming election, as the state braces for a day that could shape its future leadership. With six major trends poised to influence the election’s outcome, the situation is dynamic and unpredictable.
The Olumide Akpata & LP Factor
One of the most significant variables in this election is the involvement of Olumide Akpata, whose candidacy has added a new layer of intrigue. For many residents, the involvment of the former President of the Nigerian Bar Association is a steep vote-spliter for the two major candidates, Asue Igadolo of the PDP and Monday Okphebolo of the APC. The question on everyone’s mind is, which of the major party—PDP or APC—will lose the most votes to Akpata? The outcome of the election could hinge on this factor. Whoever he pulls votes away from may suffer a loss, allowing Akpata to gain an advantage and potentially win.
The role of Peter Obi, Labour Party’s (LP) national leader, in the Edo election cannot be understated. His backing of Akpata has raised the stakes, possibly dragging President Bola Tinubu into the fray. A win for Akpata could provide a platform for Obi to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 presidential election. The involvement of Tinubu and the might of federal power have further complicated the political landscape in Edo. Labour Party’s direct appeal to Edo voters—that electing Akpata could be a step toward an Obi presidency—has raised the stakes even higher.
Peter Obi, who has faced criticism for backing Akpata, has stood by his decision. According to the Labour Party, Obi’s involvement in the Edo election is based on his desire to promote democracy and development in the state. Responding to his critics, Obi emphasized that his support for Akpata was not about undermining zoning principles but about choosing a competent candidate.
The statement from Obi’s media team read, “Obi does not trade competence and reputation for zoning, and as a democrat, he will always respect the position of the majority, especially if it’s anchored on the track record of the candidate.”
The ‘Edo No Be Lagos’ Slogan
Governor Godwin Obaseki’s famous campaign slogan, “Edo no be Lagos,” once served him well during his elections for a second term. However, this time it might backfire. With the federal power now aligned against him, the incumbent governor may find himself at a disadvantage. Tinubu’s involvement, along with the federal backing of the APC candidate Okphebolo, could turn Obaseki’s slogan into a liability rather than an asset.
The Oba of Benin Factor
The influence of the Oba of Benin, Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo, Ewuare II, is another significant factor. Governor Obaseki’s previous disagreements with the monarch might now come back to haunt him. The Oba’s influence on the electorate cannot be ignored, and if he speaks against Obaseki, it could swing the election against the incumbent. The question is in the hours leading to the elections, will the Oba of Benin make a public statement, and if so, how strongly will he push for change?
Incumbency at the Grassroots
Governor Obaseki, as the incumbent, has certain advantages that cannot be overlooked. His control over grassroots structures, including civil servants, teachers, and local government officials, could work in his favor. These networks are crucial in any election, and the governor’s ability to mobilize them might make a significant difference in the outcome. However, this advantage may be neutralized if federal institutions such as INEC, the police, and the army decide to side with the opposition.
The Role of Critical Institutions
The final spearhead to watch is the role that critical institutions, including INEC, the police, and the army, will play in the election. Allegations of bias and interference have already begun to circulate, and tomorrow’s election will serve as another litmus test for the integrity of these institutions. Will they remain neutral, or will they be accused of partisanship? The conduct of these institutions could shape not only the outcome of the Edo election but also set the tone for future elections in Nigeria.
