The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its economic growth prediction for Nigeria, forecasting a growth rate of 3.1 percent for 2024. This marks a slight decrease from the previously expected 3.3 percent announced in April. The adjustment of 0.2 percentage points reflects a careful outlook influenced by weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter of the year.
In its July 2024 World Economic Outlook, the IMF pointed to the subdued performance early in the year as the main reason for lowering Nigeria’s growth forecast. Despite this revision, the IMF maintained a steady outlook, projecting a growth rate of 3.0 percent for Nigeria in 2025, indicating cautious optimism for recovery in the following year.
The IMF also revised down its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 3.7 percent for 2024, down from the previous 3.8 percent projected in April. This adjustment largely reflects Nigeria’s economic performance, underscoring its significant impact on the broader regional outlook.
Looking forward, the IMF expects a slight improvement in economic growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2025, with a revised forecast of 4.1 percent, up from the earlier projection of 4.0 percent. This adjustment reflects expectations of recovery and improved economic conditions across the region as global uncertainties gradually diminish.
Globally, the IMF maintained its forecast for stable economic growth, projecting a growth rate of 3.2 percent for 2024 and 3.3 percent for 2025. This consistency underscores the expectation of balanced economic conditions worldwide, with growth rates aligning among advanced economies in the coming quarters.
In the United States, the IMF adjusted its growth projection downward to 2.6 percent for 2024, reflecting a slower-than-expected start to the year. Looking ahead to 2025, growth is anticipated to further moderate to 1.9 percent as fiscal policies tighten and consumption dynamics adjust.
Regarding inflation, the IMF expects a continued decline globally, particularly in advanced economies, although the pace of disinflation is expected to slow in 2024 and 2025. This adjustment is influenced by persistent inflation in service prices and higher commodity prices, despite a decrease in energy costs.
Overall, the IMF’s latest economic forecasts emphasize nuanced adjustments reflecting evolving global economic conditions. There is cautious optimism for recovery and stability in the medium term across various regions and sectors. These adjustments reflect the IMF’s ongoing assessment of global economic trends and its impact on regional economies like Nigeria and broader sub-Saharan Africa.
