Bismarck Rewane, a renowned economist and the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives, has expressed skepticism about Nigeria’s goal of reaching a $1 trillion economy under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. According to Rewane, this ambitious target is unlikely to be achieved within the next four to five years.
Rewane shared his views during a recent interview on Arise Television where he highlighted the current economic situation in Nigeria, noting that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by only 3.19 percent in the second quarter of 2024. He pointed out that this growth rate is insufficient to meet the $1 trillion economy goal set by the government.
The economist observed that Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio had increased from around 4 percent to 9 percent. Despite this increase, he emphasized that there has been no significant improvement in the overall well-being of Nigerians. This suggests that higher tax revenues have not translated into better living standards or economic benefits for the general population.
Rewane also mentioned that global economic shocks have negatively impacted Nigeria’s economy. He explained that external factors, such as fluctuations in global markets and economic instability in other countries, are contributing to Nigeria’s economic challenges.
During the interview, Rewane questioned the effectiveness of Nigeria’s economic strategies and goals. He reflected on past objectives, saying, “What are the broad mark economic goals of this economy? We wanted to be among the top 20 economies in the world, and then we were 26. Today, we are 32 so we have worked our way down the ladder of success.”
He pointed out that the country had previously aimed to rank among the top 20 global economies but has since fallen to the 32nd position. This indicates a decline in economic performance and raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies.
Additionally, Rewane addressed the new goal of achieving a $1 trillion economy. He noted that Nigeria’s current economy stands at approximately $384 billion and emphasized that achieving a $1 trillion economy would require a growth rate of around 200 percent over the next four to five years. He described this goal as unrealistic, stating, “Secondly, we now said that we want the economy to be a $1 trillion economy but now we are $384 billion which means we have to have like 200% growth in the next 4 to 5 years, that is not going to happen.”
Rewane’s analysis highlights the significant challenges Nigeria faces in reaching its economic targets. The required growth rate is extremely high, and the current economic indicators do not suggest that such rapid expansion is feasible in the near term.
In contrast to Rewane’s cautious outlook, President Tinubu had previously set an ambitious timeline for achieving the $1 trillion economy goal. During the Nigerian Economic Summit in 2023, Tinubu announced that the target was achievable within three years. This statement reflected a more optimistic view of Nigeria’s economic prospects, suggesting that substantial progress could be made in a relatively short period.
The differing perspectives on Nigeria’s economic future illustrate the challenges of setting and achieving ambitious economic goals. While President Tinubu’s administration is focused on rapid economic growth and significant milestones, experts like Rewane highlight the obstacles and limitations that may hinder progress.
Rewane’s comments are a reminder of the complexity of economic planning and the need for realistic assessments of a country’s capabilities and limitations. Achieving a $1 trillion economy requires not only ambitious goals but also effective strategies, sound economic policies, and favorable external conditions.
As Nigeria continues to navigate its economic challenges, the insights from experts like Bismarck Rewane can provide valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders. Understanding the current economic landscape and addressing the underlying issues will be crucial for making meaningful progress toward long-term economic objectives.
Rewane’s analysis of Nigeria’s economic prospects raises important questions about the feasibility of achieving the $1 trillion economy goal in the near future. While the government remains optimistic about reaching this target, the challenges highlighted by Rewane underscore the need for careful planning and realistic expectations in the pursuit of economic growth and development.
